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Héctor runs a reefer out of the Rio Grande Valley. Every November he does the same thing. He parks near McAllen, waits for Thanksgiving produce, and lets the holiday come to him.
“The holidays always pay,” he told our dispatcher the first week of November.
This year the holiday showed up. It just didn’t stop in Texas.
Reefer loads jumped 16% in a single week across the country. Rates went up. But out of South Texas, the rate didn’t move a penny. Mexican produce crossing through Texas dropped 9% in a week, and South Texas was the only produce area in the country with extra trucks sitting around.
So we pulled up the board together. The Minneapolis area was paying around $4.49 a mile all-in for reefer. The Pacific Northwest was short on trucks for apples and pears. California was short on trucks for citrus.
He didn’t love it. Leaving the border two weeks before Thanksgiving felt like walking away from his own backyard. But he took a load north. A week later he was reloading out of the upper Midwest at a rate he hadn’t seen from the Valley all fall, and he still made it home for turkey.
“I used to wait for the market,” he told us. “Now I go find it.”
That’s November 2026 in one driver. Here’s the rest of the map.
The Big Picture: You’re Getting Paid a Dollar More. Sort Of.
Let’s start with the headline. In October, brokers paid carriers about a dollar a mile more than a year ago.
According to DAT’s October report, the average dry van spot rate hit $3.05 a mile. That’s the highest monthly number since February 2022, and 98 cents more than last October. Reefer averaged $3.60 (up $1.12 from a year ago). Flatbed averaged $3.61 (up $1.10).
DAT analyst Dean Croke put it simply: brokers “moved fewer loads than a year ago and paid carriers about a dollar a mile more to move them.”
Read that twice. Fewer loads, more money. Freight volume is actually down from last year: dry van -2%, reefer -9%, flatbed -7%. Rates are up because trucks are gone. Truck posts on DAT are running 22% to 26% below last year.
And nobody is rushing to replace them. New Class 8 truck orders fell 45% from a year ago in October, and trucking jobs are flat. Fewer trucks plus steady freight means the carrier holds more cards than usual.
Now the “sort of.” A big piece of that extra dollar is fuel.
Quick refresher on two terms you’ll see all over this post:
- Linehaul is what the load pays for the miles, without fuel.
- All-in is linehaul plus the fuel surcharge. It’s the number you actually see on the rate confirmation.
Since July, dry van linehaul has dropped 17 cents, while the fuel part of the rate has climbed 21 cents. Fuel is now about 27% of the all-in van rate, up from 16% in January. A truck running 500 miles a day burned about $521 in diesel per day in October, compared with $310 in February.
So yes, the rate looks great. But as we’ve said before, the all-in rate doesn’t tell the whole story. Run your own numbers before you celebrate.
This Week’s Numbers: Three Trailers, Three Different Markets
Here’s how the three main equipment types looked in DAT’s most recent week.
| Equipment | All-in spot rate | Loads per truck | A year ago | Top-paying area | What it means for you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry van | $3.11 | 10.9 | 5.7 | California (~$3.62) | Steady. Florida is still the floor (~$2.23). |
| Reefer | $3.70 | 19.0 | 11.8 | Upper Midwest (~$4.49) | Thanksgiving is here. Go north or west. |
| Flatbed | $3.65 | 42.3 | 21.1 | Ohio River (~$4.12) | Loads everywhere. Negotiate the rate. |
Source: DAT One weekly data and DAT equipment reports (Nov 9, 2026). Regional rates are estimated all-in (DAT regional linehaul + DAT national fuel surcharge).
Reefer: The Holiday Is Paying North and West
Reefer is the story of November.
Reefer load posts jumped 16% in one week on DAT. On Truckstop, reefer loads rose 18.4%, the biggest jump since Roadcheck week in May. The reefer load-to-truck ratio leaped from 15.7 to 19.0. That’s 61% higher than this time last year.
DAT’s reefer report said it plainly: holiday food freight is starting to move. Turkey, dairy, produce. And soon, Christmas trees out of Oregon.
But here’s the catch Héctor ran into. The money isn’t evenly spread.
- Upper Midwest (Minneapolis area): about $4.49 all-in, up 12 cents. The top-paying reefer region in the country.
- Pacific Northwest (Yakima area): about $4.14, up 15 cents. Trucks are short for apples and pears. Washington apples headed to Miami were paying $12,900 to $13,800 per load.
- California: about $3.84, up 15 cents. Trucks are short for citrus.
- Texas: about $3.07. Zero change. Mexican produce volume is down, and trucks are easy to find.
- Florida: didn’t even make DAT’s top 10 reefer origins this week. Produce is flowing into Florida right now, not out.
Timing matters. DAT says Thanksgiving loads usually pull into the week before the holiday. Thanksgiving is Thursday, November 26. So the busy stretch is roughly November 16 to 25.
Dispatchers: if you’re booking reefers this month, our guide on how to dispatch a reefer load still applies. Just aim the truck north or west first.
Dry Van: California Leads, Florida Is Still the Floor
Dry van is the steady earner right now. The national all-in rate sits at $3.11, and van rates are higher than any early November except 2021.
DAT’s dry van report shows where it pays:
- California (Los Angeles area): about $3.62 all-in, up 15 cents. Number one for the third week in a row.
- Great Lakes (Chicago area): about $3.37. Steady.
- Southeast (Atlanta area): about $2.89, up 3 cents.
- Texas: about $2.71, up 2 cents.
- Florida: about $2.23, up 3 cents.
Good news first: Florida van rates went up for the first time in a month, after three straight weekly drops.
Now the bad news. California rose faster. The gap between Florida and the top-paying region grew to $1.39 a mile, the widest all fall. Florida is still the lowest-paying van origin in DAT’s top 10. Truckstop also noted that Southeast van gains trailed the national increase.
What’s driving van? Stores are restocking for Thanksgiving and the holiday season. DAT expects that to keep freight moving out of distribution centers through late November.
One thing to keep an eye on: shipping by rail (intermodal) is now about 30% cheaper than truckload, and rail volumes are up 9% from last year. That mostly pressures long-haul van lanes. Short and regional runs are safer.
If you deliver into Florida, the old rule still stands. Line up your reload before you cross the state line. We broke down why in the hidden cost of Florida outbound freight. And if you’re stuck repositioning, here’s how to minimize deadhead miles without guessing.
Flatbed: All the Freight, Not All the Money
Flatbed is the strangest market of the three.
On paper, flatbed should be printing money. The load-to-truck ratio is 42.3. That’s 42 loads for every truck, nearly double last year’s 21. SONAR shows flatbed tender rejections at 21%. (A tender rejection is when a contract carrier says “no thanks” to a load it agreed to haul. When that number is high, more loads spill onto the spot market.)
But the rate barely moved. DAT had flatbed linehaul up just 2 cents. Truckstop had flatbed rates down 5.7 cents, their fourth drop in five weeks.
Why? Construction and industrial jobs usually slow down around Thanksgiving and into year-end. Shippers know it. Brokers know it. So they’re slow to pay up, even with trucks this scarce.
Where flatbed pays:
- Ohio River (Cincinnati area): about $4.12 all-in. Still the top payer, but down 14 cents.
- Southeast (Atlanta area): about $3.89. Down five weeks straight.
- Texas (Houston area): about $3.24. Texas is DAT’s number one flatbed origin by volume. DAT’s latest headline: Houston flatbed freight pays more in every direction.
- Florida: about $3.26. Basically even with Texas.
Here’s a story from one of our flatbed guys out of Houston. Call him Danny.
Danny had no trouble finding loads. That was never the problem. The problem was that every broker offered him the same rate they’d paid in October. “It’s slowing down for the holidays,” they kept saying.
The first few times, he took it. Then he started looking at the numbers before he picked up the phone. Forty-two loads per truck. Rejections over 20%. He realized he wasn’t the one who needed the deal.
So he countered. Politely, but with numbers. Not every broker budged. Some did. On the loads he did book, he stopped leaving money on the table just because a broker said “holidays.”
“There’s freight everywhere,” Danny said. “The fight is the rate, not the load.”
That’s the flatbed lesson for November. Thinking about switching trailers? Read our take on whether switching from dry van to flatbed is worth it first. The leverage is real, but it comes in waves.
Where the Money Is: Side-by-Side
Here’s the whole map in one place. All rates are approximate all-in spot rates for the week ending November 6.
| Equipment | Top-paying area | Rate | Texas | Florida | Watch out for |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reefer | Upper Midwest (Minneapolis) | ~$4.49 | ~$3.07 (flat) | Not in top 10 | South Texas has extra trucks |
| Dry van | California (Los Angeles) | ~$3.62 | ~$2.71 | ~$2.23 | Florida is the floor; $1.39 below the top |
| Flatbed | Ohio River (Cincinnati) | ~$4.12 | ~$3.24 | ~$3.26 | Rates sliding in the Southeast |
Approximate all-in spot rates, week ending Nov 6, 2026. Estimated from DAT regional linehaul plus DAT's national fuel surcharge. City names are examples inside each DAT region.
Spot vs. Contract: Which Trailer Has the Edge?
Here’s a comparison most market updates skip. How close is the spot rate to the contract rate for each trailer?
In October, according to Heavy Duty Trucking:
- Reefer: spot $3.60 vs. contract $3.62. Basically even. Reefer spot drivers are earning contract money right now.
- Dry van: spot $3.05 vs. contract $3.28. Spot is 23 cents behind.
- Flatbed: spot $3.61 vs. contract $4.05. Spot is 44 cents behind, and contract flatbed hit a record for the third straight month.
What does that tell you? Shippers are paying record money to lock in flatbed and reefer capacity on contract. On the spot side, reefer has caught up and flatbed hasn’t. If you’re a flatbed owner-operator, that gap is your negotiating ammo.
Not sure which side of the market fits your operation? We laid out the trade-offs in spot rates vs. contract rates for truck drivers.
Diesel: Down 16 Cents, Still Over Six Bucks
Finally, some relief at the pump. The national diesel average dropped 16.5 cents to $6.127 a gallon in the EIA’s November 9 reading. That’s the lowest since early September and 40 cents below the record from September 21.
- Florida and Georgia (Lower Atlantic): $5.694. Still the cheapest in the country.
- Texas (Gulf Coast): $5.741. Now less than 5 cents behind Florida and Georgia.
- California: $7.897. Ouch.
So why is diesel still over $6 when oil prices fell? FreightWaves has a great breakdown in their Diesel 101 piece. The short version: crude oil is only about $2.20 of every gallon. The refining part is $2.51, almost three times what it was in early 2026. Refined fuel is the bottleneck, not crude. Brent crude fell 21% from its late-October high, but truck stop diesel fell only 2.5%.
The EIA expects diesel to average about $6.05 for the rest of this quarter, and around $5.03 for all of 2027. That’s a forecast, not a promise.
Two practical points:
- Your fuel surcharge will follow diesel down, usually a week or two behind. Expect brokers to point at cheaper diesel when they offer you a rate. Know your linehaul number so you’re negotiating the miles, not just the fuel. (If your cost-per-mile math is fuzzy, start with these common CPM mistakes.)
- Fill up in Georgia if you can. The state fuel tax is suspended through November 30.
What to Do This Week
No fluff. Here’s the playbook.
If you pull a reefer:
- Point the truck north or west for Thanksgiving freight. Midwest, Pacific Northwest and California are paying. Texas and Florida aren’t moving.
- The busy window is November 16 to 25. Be positioned before it starts, not during.
- Delivering to Miami? Book your reload before you get there.
If you pull a dry van:
- California and the Great Lakes are paying the most. Atlanta pays more than Florida.
- Running into Florida? Line up your outbound first. Florida van is still at the bottom.
If you pull a flatbed:
- Freight is everywhere. Don’t take the first offer.
- Use the numbers when you counter: 42 loads per truck, flatbed spot well below contract.
- Expect a slowdown after Thanksgiving as construction winds down.
For everyone:
- Watch your linehaul, not just the all-in. Fuel is falling, and surcharges will drop with it.
- Fuel in Florida, Georgia or Texas when you can. Georgia is tax-free through November 30.
- One week isn’t a trend. Trucks came back in late October and left again in early November. Check the board every day.
For dispatchers: rotate trucks toward the regions in the table above, and don’t let a driver sit in Florida or South Texas waiting for the holiday to come to them.
What’s Coming
A few things to have on your radar. These are forecasts, so treat them that way.
- Thanksgiving (Thursday, November 26): reefer peaks the week before. Flatbed usually cools. Van stays busy into early December with holiday restocking.
- DAT’s 35-day outlook (linehaul only, by mid-December): van around $2.32, reefer around $2.76, flatbed around $2.64. Roughly flat to slightly up from today.
- Room to run? Flock Freight’s Chris Pickett told FreightWaves that spot rates may have another 10% to 15% to climb before peaking. That’s one person’s forecast, not a sure thing.
- Capacity stays tight. With new truck orders down 45% and tender rejections at 12.9% vs. 6.2% a year ago, the shortage of trucks isn’t fixing itself soon.
The Final Mile
November 2026 is a carrier’s market. Rates are near multi-year highs, trucks are scarce, and every trailer type has about twice the leverage it had a year ago.
But it’s not the same market for everyone. Reefer is riding Thanksgiving, just not in Texas or Florida. Dry van is steady, with California on top and Florida at the bottom. Flatbed has more freight than it knows what to do with and rates that won’t budge.
The drivers winning right now aren’t the ones waiting for the market to come to them. They’re the ones like Héctor, who looked at the map and moved. And like Danny, who stopped saying yes to the first number.
Back in September we told you your raise was fuel. In November, fuel is finally easing. Make sure your linehaul is doing the work.
The map changed again. Go where the money is.
