Short Haul Stacking for Dispatchers - Freight Market Update

November 13,2025

Let’s cut through the noise: last week’s freight market update wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire. But if you knew where to look – and more importantly, where to position your truck – there were some legitimate hot spots worth chasing. Here’s what actually happened in the spot market during the first week of November, and where the smart money is moving equipment right now.

The Big Picture: A Market That Can’t Make Up Its Mind

The spot freight market rolled into November showing all the consistency of a rookie backing into a dock. Dry van capacity loosened up with load-to-truck ratios dropping to around 5.8 loads per truck – meaning more trucks chasing fewer loads. Flatbed stayed relatively tight at 21.6 loads per truck, though that’s cooling off from the ultra-tight conditions we saw back in September. And reefer? Well, that’s where things get interesting (and not in a good way for most of you).

The one bright spot: spot rates are running about 2-4% higher than this time last year, depending on your equipment type. That’s not exactly champagne-popping territory, but it beats the hell out of where we were in fall 2024. Tender rejection rates – that’s when carriers say “no thanks” to contract loads because the spot market is paying better – are hovering around 5-6%. Double what they were a year ago, but still pretty tame.

Here’s how the three major equipment types stack up right now:

Equipment Type	Load-to-Truck Ratio	Average Spot Rate	Year-Over-Year Change	Market Condition
Dry Van	5.8 loads/truck	$1.69/mile	+2%	Loosening (capacity returning)
Reefer	~12 loads/truck	$2.09/mile	+2%	Softer than expected for season
Flatbed	21.6 loads/truck	$2.05/mile	+4%	Cooling but still relatively tight

Dry Van: Following the Import Trail

The dry van market showed its true colors last week when load posts dropped 4% while truck posts jumped 6%. Do the math – that’s a 14% decline in your odds of finding a decent paying load if you’re sitting in the wrong place.

Major hubs got hammered with volume drops: Atlanta down 19%, Houston off 14%, Chicago down 11%, and Dallas? That market fell off a damn cliff at nearly 30%. Only 6 out of 135 van markets actually saw load volume increase last week. Not exactly peak season vibes.

But here’s the thing – the market’s not dead, it’s just splitting. Port cities and retail distribution corridors are starting to tighten up as retailers position holiday inventory. Import-driven lanes out of Savannah, Charleston, and Houston are firming up, even while Midwest and interior markets are sitting there like a truck stop at 3 AM on a Tuesday.

Where to position: Stick close to port-adjacent markets and major distribution hubs. Southern California to Dallas, Southeast to Northeast – these high-volume lanes are your best bet for the next few weeks. Secondary markets with weak demand? Skip ’em unless you’re getting paid stupid money to deadhead out.

Reefer: The Thanksgiving That Wasn’t (Yet)

This one surprised me. The reefer market should be screaming right now – it’s Thanksgiving week, for crying out loud. Instead, we’re seeing unexpected softness with volumes falling 15% in the top 10 reefer markets. Atlanta and Chicago reefer loads dropped 12%, Dallas plunged 27%.

Some of this is weird external stuff – apparently the temporary suspension of SNAP benefits (food stamps) on November 1 in some states cooled produce demand. Who knew food assistance programs moved reefer rates? But they do.

That said, reefer spot rates still ticked up a penny to $2.09 per mile, running about 2% higher than last year and actually 3% above the 10-year average for early November. So the market’s not collapsing – it’s just not performing like a normal pre-Thanksgiving surge. If you’re dispatching reefers, understanding these seasonal patterns matters more than ever.

Reefer Operations: Temperature Management Under Pressure

The Bright Spots for Reefers

There are regional pockets of legitimate demand:

Midwest poultry corridor: Missouri saw a 10% weekly jump (33% monthly) in reefer loads as fresh turkeys move for Thanksgiving
Pacific Northwest: Late-season apple and pear harvests in Washington and Oregon are keeping reefer capacity tight
Border markets: Nogales, Arizona and McAllen, Texas continue seeing strong produce imports from Mexico

And then there’s Florida. Oh boy, Florida.

The Florida Wildcard

Here’s where things got really heated last week – and not because of the weather. Florida’s aggressive immigration and English-proficiency enforcement turned all truck weigh stations into immigration checkpoints back in late September. The result? A ton of drivers now avoid Florida like it’s a 2 AM load of returnable pallets to Brooklyn.

Outbound Florida reefer load posts jumped 18% overall and 22% in one week as brokers scrambled to find trucks. South Florida got hit even harder – Miami area reefer postings surged 44% in a single week. Even though Florida’s produce season is winding down, this man-made capacity crunch means loads there are paying premium rates.

If you’re willing to run into Florida and your drivers can clear the checkpoints, there’s money to be made. Just build in extra time for possible inspection delays – and know where the good truck stops are if you’re stuck waiting.

Flatbed: Still the Strong Horse (Relatively Speaking)

The flatbed sector continues outperforming van and reefer, though it’s entering the seasonal construction cooldown. Load-to-truck ratios settled around 21.6 last week – down from the ultra-tight 30:1 we saw in September, but still way healthier than dry van.

While overall flatbed load posts fell 5% and the top 10 markets saw a 21% decline, we’re seeing interesting pockets of strength:

Portland, Oregon: Spot flatbed rates jumped $0.30/mile last week to $2.36/mile
Jackson, Mississippi: Rates spiked $0.30 to $2.85/mile outbound on strong regional demand
Houston, Texas: Bucked the softening trend with a $0.03 uptick to $2.04/mile outbound

The national flatbed rate held steady at $2.05 per mile – importantly, that’s $0.08 (4%) higher than the same week in 2024.

Why flatbed is hanging tough: Residential construction freight is cooling with the season, but industrial and energy-related flatbed freight remains active. Federal infrastructure spending and expanded tariffs on imported steel are fueling steady traffic for steel, pipe, and machinery in Texas, Alabama, and Oklahoma. Midwest manufacturing belt is tight due to surges in industrial freight related to tariffs and reshoring.

Where to hunt: Focus on energy and infrastructure projects – oilfield equipment in Texas/Oklahoma, pipeline materials in the Gulf Coast, utility infrastructure in the Southeast. These are less weather-sensitive than residential construction. Target industrial freight moves, not building materials right now.

Regional Highlights: Texas and Florida Deserve Their Own Section

Texas: Tale of Two Markets

Texas is basically two different freight markets wearing a cowboy hat. Dallas/Fort Worth saw sharp drops in spot volumes recently – part of the post-holiday-stockpiling lull. But Houston is hanging tough thanks to port volumes (with cargo diversions from West Coast) and energy sector demand. Houston’s flatbed market is particularly active serving oilfield machinery, pipe, and Gulf reconstruction.

South Texas border regions – Laredo and McAllen – are high-volume lanes handling strong import flows of produce and manufactured goods. Carriers positioned near border crossings can find plenty of loads, though expect possible inspection delays.

Texas strategy: For dry van, watch Houston port imports and expect Dallas to pick back up approaching Thanksgiving. For reefer, South Texas produce and border freight offer opportunities. For flatbed, focus on energy and industrial corridors – Houston to West Texas oilfields, Houston to Midwest steel lanes.

Florida: High Risk, High Reward

Florida emerged as the wildcard in recent weeks. Beyond the immigration enforcement creating that capacity pinch we talked about, there’s also late-season harvest activity (very late watermelon crop in the Southeast gave Florida a small produce bump).

The capacity shortage is real – industry data confirms Florida had a truck deficit for multiple weeks in a row. That means higher spot rates on loads originating in or destined for Florida across all equipment types. Brokers are paying premiums to entice trucks into a state with potential delays or fines.

If you’re a carrier comfortable operating in Florida and compliant with regulations, this region currently offers above-average load-to-truck ratios and pricing. Just be prepared for inspection delays. Florida’s seasonal demand will shift soon as fall produce ends, but winter imports through South Florida ports will ramp up.

Florida verdict: High-risk, high-reward. If you’re compliant and patient, there’s money there.

The English Proficiency Enforcement Reality Check

We can’t talk about where markets heated up without addressing the regulatory elephant in the room. Since late June, FMCSA has been hammering English language proficiency at roadside inspections. Through late October, inspectors issued over 23,000 violations, with about 6,500 drivers put out-of-service. If you haven’t brushed up on the TAPPS and English requirements, now’s the time.

Top enforcement states:

Texas: 582 OOS orders (leads the nation)
Wyoming: 469 OOS orders
Tennessee: 397 OOS orders
Arizona: 361 OOS orders
Florida: Jumped to 8th nationally after ramping up enforcement

Minimal enforcement states:

California: Just 1 OOS case (despite federal pressure)
Washington: Almost no enforcement
New Mexico: Barely enforcing

Here’s the practical reality: if you or your drivers struggle with English, be extremely cautious in Texas, Arizona, Tennessee, Florida, and Wyoming. A simple weigh station stop could result in a 10-hour OOS order (or longer) if the officer deems your driver not English-proficient. This is happening alongside the non-domiciled CDL crackdown that’s sidelining even more drivers.

But here’s the opportunity angle: if you’re a carrier with fully English-proficient drivers, you might find slightly less competition in some lanes because others are avoiding them. The heightened enforcement in Florida is one reason fewer trucks are willing to go there – which creates opportunity for compliant carriers.

Bottom line on ELP: Know where the risk is highest (South Central and Southwestern states), make sure you’re compliant before entering those areas, and consider this an opportunity if you’ve got your ducks in a row. States most likely to hit you: TX, WY, TN, AZ, FL.

Positioning Strategy: Where to Park Your Truck This Week

Let’s get tactical. Based on this week’s data, here’s where you should be thinking about positioning equipment. Smart positioning isn’t just about chasing the hot freight – it’s about turning every leg into a profitable one, even when the market’s lukewarm.

For Dry Van operators:

Position near port cities: Houston, Savannah, LA/Long Beach
Major DC hubs: Atlanta, Dallas, Chicago (watch for Thanksgiving restocking)
High-volume lanes: Texas→Midwest, Southeast→Northeast
Avoid: Secondary markets with low load-to-truck ratios (most inland non-port markets)

For Reefer operators:

Midwest meat & poultry: Focus on Missouri, Upper Midwest (turkey and ham peak)
Pacific Northwest: Washington/Oregon produce (apples, pears winding down)
Southeast produce belts: Georgia, South Carolina (fall vegetables, frozen foods)
Border produce: South Texas and Arizona (Mexican imports)
Florida outbound: If compliant with new rules, capacity shortage means premium rates

For Flatbed operators:

Houston and Texas/Louisiana Gulf: Oil & gas equipment, metal loads
Southeast infrastructure: Alabama, Georgia (federal projects, utility work)
Midwest industrial: Ohio Valley, Great Lakes (manufacturing, steel moves)
Avoid: Markets heavy on home construction (Mountain West, New England during winter)

The Bottom Line

The spot market in mid-November 2025 is showing signs of life compared to earlier this year, but we’re a long way from the boom times. Success comes down to leveraging timely data and staying adaptable.

Where did it actually heat up last week? Florida (thanks to immigration enforcement creating artificial capacity crunch), selective Texas markets (Houston port/energy, border crossings), Midwest poultry lanes (Thanksgiving surge), Pacific Northwest produce, and specific flatbed corridors serving energy and infrastructure projects.

The national numbers might look lukewarm, but the real money is in the micro-markets. Use load board heat maps, watch rejection indices, and position yourself where capacity is genuinely tight rather than sitting in oversupplied markets hoping for a miracle.

With holiday season approaching and regulatory changes creating friction in certain states, the next few weeks will reward operators who are informed and nimble. Stay compliant with that English proficiency stuff, chase the hot lanes, and don’t waste time in dead zones.

The freight’s out there – you just gotta know where to look.

Frequently Asked Questions (The Stuff You’re Probably Still Wondering)

1. What is a good load-to-truck ratio?

A ratio of 2:1 (two loads for every available truck) is generally considered healthy for carriers. Anything above that – like the 5.8 we're seeing in dry van right now – means you've got leverage to negotiate better rates. Below 2:1? You're competing with more trucks than loads, which drives rates down. Flatbed's sitting at 21.6 loads per truck right now, which is solid even though it's cooling off from earlier this year. The ratio tells you if you're walking into a buyer's or seller's market before you even pick up the phone.

2. What does the load-to-truck ratio actually mean for my paycheck?

Simple: higher ratios usually mean higher rates. When there are more loads than trucks – say 10 loads for every 5 trucks (2:1) – brokers have to compete for your capacity. That's when you can hold out for better money. When it flips and there are more trucks than loads, rates drop because carriers are competing with each other for freight. Right now with dry van at 5.8:1, you'd think rates would be climbing, but the problem is volume's down 4% while capacity jumped 6%, so overall the market's still soft despite the decent ratio.

3. What's the difference between spot rates and contract rates in trucking?

Spot market rates are one-time deals – what you can get for a load right now, today. They fluctuate constantly based on supply and demand, sometimes changing hour by hour. Contract rates are negotiated prices locked in for weeks or months, usually for consistent lanes you run regularly. Spot makes up about 20% of the market, contracts are 80%. Spot gives you flexibility and potential for higher rates when the market's hot, but it's volatile. Contract gives you stability and guaranteed freight, but you might miss out on rate spikes. Most successful operators run a mix of both.

4. Should I focus on spot loads or contract loads right now?

In this market? Depends on your risk tolerance and operating cash. Spot rates are running only 2-4% above last year – hardly boom times – so the premium for dealing with spot market volatility isn't huge right now. If you can secure decent contract rates (above $2.10 for van, $2.30 for reefer) with steady volume from a reliable shipper, that's probably smarter than gambling on the spot market day-to-day. The exception: if you're good at positioning strategically and can chase those hot regional markets like Florida or Texas border lanes, spot can still pay better than mediocre contract rates. Just don't go 100% spot unless you've got the cash reserves to weather soft weeks.

5. Why are spot rates sometimes higher than contract rates?

Because spot rates react immediately to market conditions while contract rates lag by 3-6 months. When capacity tightens fast – say during peak season, natural disasters, or (like Florida right now) when regulatory enforcement sidelines drivers – spot rates spike while contracts stay flat until renewal time. Right now in early November we're in that weird zone where spot and contract rates are pretty close, both running slightly above last year. Back in 2021-2022 when the market was screaming hot, spot rates were $1+ per mile higher than contracts because carriers could make more money saying "no" to cheap contract freight and running spot. It's all about the freight cycle

6. How do I know if freight rates are about to go up?

Watch three things: First, load-to-truck ratios climbing consistently over 2-3 weeks in key markets. Second, [tender rejection rates](https://keynnectlogistics.com/what-is-the-freight-spot-market/) increasing – when contract carriers start rejecting loads because they're finding better money elsewhere, that's your signal spot rates are climbing. Third, seasonal patterns – pre-Thanksgiving should tighten reefer capacity, pre-Christmas should boost dry van, spring ramps up flatbed construction freight. Right now tender rejections are only 5-6% nationally (double last year but still tame), so we're not seeing rate pressure yet except in isolated markets like Florida where enforcement created an artificial capacity crunch.

7.What's the average freight rate per mile right now?

As of early November 2025, national averages are $1.69/mile for dry van, $2.09/mile for reefer, and $2.05/mile for flatbed – all excluding fuel surcharge. But averages lie. You can get $2.50/mile running Miami to Atlanta reefer loads right now because nobody wants to touch Florida, while the same dry van Dallas to Phoenix run that paid $2.00 last year might only get you $1.55 today because the market's flooded with trucks. Your actual rate depends on your equipment, the specific lane, your relationship with the broker or shipper, and how desperate either side is. Focus on your cost per mile and make sure any load covers that plus profit – don't chase loads based on some national average that doesn't reflect your actual operating costs.

8. How is the English proficiency enforcement affecting the freight market?

It's creating regional capacity crunches more than a national crisis. Since June, about 6,500 drivers have been put out-of-service for failing English tests – that's out of millions of drivers, so nationally it's not moving the needle much.

But in states that are hardcore enforcing it – Texas (582 OOS orders), Wyoming (469), Tennessee (397), Arizona (361), and now Florida – it's absolutely tightening capacity in those corridors. Drivers who struggle with English are routing around these states or getting sidelined, which is why Florida saw reefer load posts spike 44% in one week. If your drivers speak solid English, this is creating opportunity. If not, either get them trained or avoid states that are aggressively enforcing. California's basically ignoring it (1 OOS case), so the West Coast is still wide open.

9. Is the freight recession finally over?

We're clawing our way out but we're not out yet. Rates are 2-4% above last year which means we bottomed out in 2024, but we're still running below the long-term averages and way below 2021-2022 levels. Load volumes are soft, capacity is still oversupplied in most markets, and tender rejection rates at 5-6% are nowhere near the double-digit levels you see in a healthy carrier market. Think of it less as "recession over" and more like "bleeding stopped." The market's stabilizing, there are pockets of opportunity (reefer in certain regions, flatbed for infrastructure work, Florida if you can handle the enforcement), but this isn't a return to the glory days. Plan for steady but unspectacular conditions through Q4, position smart, control your costs, and don't make rookie mistakes chasing ghost freight.

Where It Got Heated Last Week: Freight Market Update (November)