Let me paint you a picture of last week’s freight market: imagine a poker table where Florida just folded a winning hand, South Texas quietly raked in the pot, and flatbed operators are on a 13-week winning streak that nobody at the card table can explain. That’s roughly where we are heading into March 2026, and if you’re not paying attention, you’re leaving serious money on the table.
Here’s your no-fluff breakdown of what moved, what crashed, and where the smart money is positioning right now.
The Numbers First. Let’s Not Bury the Lead
According to DAT Freight & Analytics, national spot rates for the week ending February 28 held dramatically above year-ago levels across all three major equipment types. Yes, there was a slight weekly dip on dry van and reefer — that’s normal seasonal softening after winter storm chaos. But zoom out and the picture is stunning:
| Equipment | Linehaul (excl. fuel) | All-in (incl. fuel) | Week-over-Week | Year-over-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Van | $2.02–$2.04/mi | $2.39–$2.42/mi | −$0.02 | +24% |
| Reefer | $2.41–$2.46/mi | $2.78–$2.90/mi | −$0.05 to −$0.07 | +27–28% |
| Flatbed | $2.26–$2.29/mi | $2.66–$2.70/mi | +$0.02 to +$0.03 | +15% |
A 24% year-over-year jump on dry van. Twenty-seven percent on reefer. That’s not a blip, that’s a structural shift. Truck posts on DAT hit a 10-year low for calendar week 9, while load posts surged 6% week-over-week. There are simply fewer trucks available to cover the freight, and that imbalance is driving everything you’re seeing in your rate confirmations right now.
If you want to understand why the spot market is behaving this way, the short answer is carrier attrition. The freight recession that started in mid-2022 wiped out roughly 88,000 authorities in 2023 alone, with another net contraction of ~10,000 carriers in the first half of 2024. The trucks left. The freight is coming back. That math only works one way.
Florida: The Produce Season That Never Showed Up
Every March, the industry ritual begins: reefer operators start positioning around Plant City and Lakeland for strawberry season, the outbound rates climb, and Florida does its thing. Not this year.
Two back-to-back winter storms, Ezra in late December and Gianna in late January, delivered a combined $3.17 billion hit to Florida agriculture. The damage reads like a bad dream: 80% of the strawberry harvest gone, 90% of blueberries wiped out, 80% of citrus acres significantly damaged. Outbound reefer rates have already crashed 35–40% from their February peak, and DAT’s Reefer Produce Report documented a 20–32% single-week correction across every major Florida outbound destination, followed by another 15% decline the following week.
The Lakeland-to-New York lane that was fetching around $3,500/load in early February? It’s well off those highs now.
For dry van operators, Florida is deep backhaul territory – $1.60 to $1.90/mile outbound from Tampa and Orlando, well below the national average. The premium inbound rates ($2.20-$2.50/mile coming in from Atlanta or Nashville) still make a deliberate round-trip pencil out, but don’t park there waiting for outbound magic. It’s not coming.
South Texas: Somebody Had to Pick Up the Slack
Here’s where the story gets interesting. When Florida’s produce market implodes, somebody still has to move the vegetables. Turns out, that somebody is Mexico, and the crossing point is South Texas.
Mexico produce imports through South Texas surged 32% in a single week in late February. Laredo, the nation’s busiest inland port handling 38.8% of all inbound trucks from Mexico, saw the Laredo-to-Houston lane jump to approximately $3.00/mile with load posts surging nearly 30%. Five of nine major outbound lanes shifted to “Slight Shortage” status. The Northeast rates out of McAllen and Pharr are the kind of numbers that make you want to do a double take:
- South TX → Boston: $6,400–$7,400/load
- South TX → New York: $6,200–$6,800/load
- South TX → Philadelphia: $5,800–$6,400/load
I talked to a reefer operator out of San Antonio last week, Carlos, who almost took a load back to Florida out of habit. Old muscle memory. He caught himself, ran the numbers on a McAllen-to-Philadelphia load instead, and cleared more in one run than he’d made in three days of Florida produce shuffling. “I kept waiting for the catch,” he told me. “There wasn’t one.” That’s the South Texas market right now. The traditional March–June Rio Grande Valley produce season is just ramping up, and with Florida and California crop damage pushing more dependency on Mexican supply chains, this tightening is structural, not temporary. If you’re a reefer operator and you’re not already pointed toward McAllen, Pharr, or Laredo — what are you waiting for?
If you need a refresher on maximizing every mile in and out of those border markets, our guide on how to dispatch a reefer breaks down the positioning strategy in plain language.
Flatbed’s 13-Week Streak and the Midwest Dry Van Premium
Let’s not let reefer hog all the spotlight. Flatbed posted gains for 13 of the last 14 weeks — a streak that’s almost absurd. The load-to-truck ratio hit 70.3 last week, up from 57.5 the prior week. What’s driving it? Data center construction, infrastructure projects, and steel demand out of the Midwest. Chicago and Gary, Indiana are flatbed hot spots right now.
For dry van operators, the Midwest is the single best regional play this week. All-in rates in that corridor are running $2.82/mile, that’s $0.40 to $0.60 above the national average. The Texas triangle (Dallas–Houston–San Antonio) is also solid, with port Houston at record volumes and the Laredo-to-Houston lane offering that standout $3.00/mile opportunity.
One more signal worth watching: tender rejection rates hit 13.4–14% nationally — levels not seen consistently since 2022. The February Logistics Managers’ Index clocked Transportation Prices at 76.7 (up 5.2 points, the highest in four years), with a forward-looking reading of 80.3. Translation: rates are going up, not down. Run spot aggressively. This is not the moment to lock yourself into a low annual contract.
The Wildcard Nobody’s Talking About Enough
Mark your calendar: March 16, 2026, the non-domiciled CDL rule takes effect. Estimates suggest it could affect upward of 200,000 CDL holders. Uber Freight believes full enforcement could trigger double-digit spot rate growth. If you’ve been following the CDL crackdown on non-domiciled truckers, you know this has been building for a while. Operators with clean authorities, compliant ELDs, and legitimate CDLs are quietly becoming the most valuable capacity in the market.
Bottom Line
The market rewarded operators who follow the data this week, not the calendar. Florida’s spring playbook is broken in 2026. South Texas is the reefer story of the season. The Midwest is printing money for dry van and flatbed. And the capacity floor is in, structurally, not seasonally.
Position accordingly. The freight doesn’t care about your habits. It goes where the trucks aren’t.
Frequently Asked Questions (The Stuff You’re Probably Still Wondering)
1. Why are spot rates so high right now if freight demand isn't booming?
2. Should I be running spot or locking in contracts right now?
3. Is Florida worth running right now for reefer operators?
4. Where should reefer operators be positioning right now?
5. What's driving flatbed's incredible winning streak?
6. What is the non-domiciled CDL rule and why does it matter?
6. What does the load-to-truck ratio actually mean for my paycheck?
