Let’s be straight with you. If you’ve been running reefer out of Florida this winter, you already felt it. One week the phone was ringing off the hook with hot loads and rates that had you smiling ear to ear. Then, almost overnight, those loads dried up like a strawberry field after a hard freeze. Because that’s exactly what happened.
From late December 2025 through early February 2026, Florida got hit by a series of hard freezes, including Winter Storms Ezra, Gianna, and Fern, pushing temperatures below 32°F across nearly every county in the state. Temperatures in inland Central and South Florida dropped into the low-to-mid 20s. Levels some growers hadn’t seen in decades.
The result? The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (FDACS) estimates over $3.17 billion in total agricultural losses and that’s more than the $1 billion hit Florida farms took from Hurricane Ian in 2022. That’s not a bad quarter. That’s a generational gut punch to one of the country’s most important winter produce regions.
For reefer drivers and dispatchers working the spot market, this event didn’t just create a temporary blip. It reshaped the entire Q1 reefer freight landscape, and if you’re still positioning your truck like it’s a normal Florida winter, you’re playing a losing hand.
ThWhat Got Wiped Out — And Why It Matters for Your Trailer
Here’s a quick gut check on the damage. These aren’t just numbers on a government report. Every one of those crops is a load that’s not going to move out of Florida this season.
Strawberries took the hardest visible hit for the reefer world. The Plant City area, which covers roughly three-quarters of the entire U.S. winter strawberry supply and lost about 80% of its remaining harvest across 16,200 acres. The Florida Strawberry Festival in late February/early March normally drives a huge seasonal reefer surge. This year? A fraction of the normal volume.
Tomatoes lost up to 80% of crop in some producing areas. Bell peppers were down 50–80% depending on location. Sweet corn, squash, blueberries, and potatoes were all hit hard across the Everglades Agricultural Area and Palm Beach growing region. Citrus lost an estimated 15% of its trees and faces aprojected multi-year productivity decline of around 27% annually before groves recover. This isn’t a one-season story.
Bottom line for reefer carriers: Florida normally acts as a dominant Q1 origin for winter vegetables and berries feeding the Northeast and Midwest. That pipeline is now running at a fraction of normal volume, and much of what’s missing is gone permanently for this season, not delayed.
A Story That Sounds Familiar: Meet Carlos
Let me tell you about Carlos. A reefer owner-operator out of Tampa with one truck and a well-worn DAT subscription. Carlos had done the Florida winter circuit for three years running. Load up on strawberries and tomatoes out of Plant City, run them to Baltimore or Boston, reload something cold and head back south. Rinse and repeat.
When the freeze hit in late January, Carlos saw the same thing everyone else saw: the load board lit up like Christmas morning. Rates spiking. Shippers scrambling. A Baltimore lane he’d been running for $2.10 a mile was suddenly showing $2.65. He repositioned his truck fast, grabbed a load, and headed north feeling like he’d cracked the code.
But here’s where it went sideways. By the time Carlos delivered and went looking for a reload out of Baltimore back south, the Florida market had already collapsed. Salvage operations were over. Fields were cleared. The loads that had been there a week earlier had simply vanished. He deadheaded 200 miles looking for options and ended up running a sub-par dry van load back to Orlando because the reefer freight just wasn’t there.
Carlos didn’t lose his shirt, but he didn’t make what he thought he was going to make either. He chased a spike without understanding what was driving it, and that’s the trap this market was setting for reefer operators all winter.
The lesson? The short-term and the long-term were telling two very different stories at the same time. You had to be able to read both.
Two Acts, One Very Confusing Play
The Florida reefer market this winter basically played out in two distinct acts, and if you only caught Act One, you got burned.
Act One was the salvage surge. In the first days after the hardest freezes, shippers rushed to salvage any marketable produce. Grocery chains placed accelerated replenishment loads. DAT flagged Florida as a ‘critical origin.’ Outbound reefer rates on lanes to Baltimore, Boston, New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia spiked more than 20% week-over-week. Capacity classifications shifted to Shortage or Slight Shortage across the board.
Act Two came fast and hit hard. Once salvageable fields were harvested and badly damaged crops abandoned, volumes dropped off a cliff. Within about a week, outbound reefer rates from Central and South Florida fell 20–32% across major lanes, representing some of the steepest single-week price corrections DAT had recorded in their produce reports. Florida went from one of the strongest reefer origin markets in the country to one of the weakest almost overnight.
That’s the story in a nutshell. And it’s not over. Load posts out of Florida continued trending lower into late February, even as national reefer load postings remained elevated year-over-year. If you’re waiting for Florida to bounce back this spring, you may be waiting a while.
The Florida Reefer Timeline at a Glance
Here’s how the market moved, and what each phase meant for owner ops and dispatchers on the ground:
| Phase | Timeline | Market Signal | What It Means for You |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salvage Surge | Late Jan – early Feb 2026 | Rates spiked 20%+ WoW; Florida flagged as "critical origin" | Hot loads, short window. Easy to overpay on repositioning |
| Rate Crash | ~1 week after surge | Rates cratered 20–32% in a single week on major lanes | Trucks chased the spike and got stranded with no reloads |
| Structural Drop | Rest of Q1 / early Q2 | Load posts trending lower vs. YoY even as national reefer demand stays elevated | Florida is now a secondary reefer market, not a seasonal anchor |
| Texas Boom | Now through spring | McAllen, Laredo, Pharr seeing tighter capacity; Mexican imports filling the gap | Reposition toward South Texas for consistent reefer volume |
| Non-Produce Shift | Ongoing | More frozen food, pharma, Protect-from-Freeze loads in FL | Diversify freight mix. Don't wait for the tomatoes that aren't coming |
The Freight Didn’t Disappear. It Just Moved to Texas
Here’s what a lot of Florida-focused reefer operators are missing: the produce demand didn’t disappear. Grocers still need tomatoes, peppers, squash, and strawberries. They just can’t get them from Florida right now.
Retailers and produce distributors are increasingly turning to Mexico to backfill the lost Florida supply, redirecting winter produce flows through Texas border crossings, primarily McAllen, Laredo, and Pharr. Mexican tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, squash, and berries are now moving in volume into U.S. distribution networks, and South Texas is seeing tighter reefer capacity and more attractive northbound lanes as a result.
Some of the seasonal reefer activity that would normally be centered in Florida is essentially migrating to the U.S.–Mexico border and the Desert Southwest. If you’ve been ignoring the Texas border run because you were comfortable with the Florida circuit, now might be a good time to take another look. If you want guidance on how to properly dispatch a reefer for maximum efficiency, the border lanes require some different thinking around detention times and pre-cooling requirements, but the rates are worth it right now.
Inbound Into Florida? Price It Like You’ll Be Looking for Deadhead
Here’s the part that gets a lot of owner-operators. And I’ve seen it personally — it’s not the fuel spike itself that kills you. It’s the timing.
Your diesel costs spike on Monday. You pay it Wednesday. Your broker’s invoice? That’s on a 30- to 45-day payment cycle. So you’re fronting hundreds, sometimes thousands, of extra dollars in fuel while the payment for those loads is still sitting in some AP department somewhere.
This is exactly why having a solid factoring arrangement in place before a crisis hits is worth thinking about now, not after diesel has already jumped a dollar. Factoring converts your invoices to same-day or next-day cash. When your cost base is volatile, your receivables can’t afford to sit around.
The other practical move: use a fuel card program or network-based fuel stops to buy diesel at negotiated rack prices along your lanes. During crises, regional spreads between truck stops can get wild, sometimes 20 or 30 cents different within 50 miles, and that adds up fast if you’re just pulling in wherever.
The Long Game: Florida Isn’t Bouncing Back Quickly
This isn’t a situation where things return to normal in a few weeks. The freeze damaged perennial crops like citrus and blueberries that take years to recover. FDACS analysts project that some of these crops will show reduced productivity for multiple growing seasons before output normalizes.
Combine that with the citrus greening disease problem that was already eating away at Florida’s grove productivity, and prior hurricane damage, and you’ve got a state that is quietly, steadily ceding its dominant position as a winter produce powerhouse. It may still be an important origin, but the difference between “important” and “dominant” is a big one for a reefer operator building a lane strategy.
The structural implication for refrigerated trucking is a gradual reweighting of winter produce flows toward import-driven gateways in Texas, Arizona, and California, with Florida still worth serving, but opportunistically rather than as a seasonal cornerstone.
What to Do With All This Information
- Stop waiting for the Florida produce surge that isn’t coming. Q1 volumes for tomatoes, peppers, squash, sweet corn, strawberries, and blueberries are structurally below normal. Adjust your lane strategy now.
- Be skeptical of short-term rate spikes out of Florida. The Feb pattern of brief surge then 20–32% crash is a lesson in chasing headlines without understanding what’s underneath them.
- Look seriously at South Texas border lanes. McAllen, Laredo, and Pharr are offering more consistent northbound reefer opportunities right now than Central Florida.
- Diversify your freight mix in Florida. Frozen foods, pharma, and Protect-from-Freeze service will keep your trailer moving when produce isn’t there.
- Price inbound loads to Florida with weak reload potential baked in. If it doesn’t pencil out even with a deadhead exit, it’s not worth it.
- Keep watching FDACS reports and DAT produce updates. Damage assessments and replanting decisions will continue to evolve through Q2.
Final Word: Read the Road, Not Just the Rate
Look, this freeze was a one-two punch. First it fooled a lot of carriers into thinking Florida was the place to be, then it left them stranded. That’s what happens when you chase a number without understanding why the number exists.
The Florida reefer market right now isn’t broken — it’s just different. The produce isn’t there, the rates reflect that, and the opportunity has moved. Texas is the story. Non-produce reefer is the story. Carriers who adapt their positioning to match that reality are going to have a decent Q1 finish. The ones waiting for a Florida rebound that isn’t on the schedule are going to have a rough few months.
Run smart. Know your reload options before you commit. And remember: the load board doesn’t owe you anything, especially not in a market that just got rearranged by Mother Nature.
Frequently Asked Questions (The Stuff You’re Probably Still Wondering)
1. Why did Florida reefer rates spike and then crash so fast?
2. Is Florida worth running reefer right now?
3. Where did the Florida produce freight actually go?
4. Will Florida's reefer market bounce back by spring?
5. How should dispatchers adjust their Florida reefer strategy right now?
6. What crops took the biggest hit for trucking purposes?
